Writing
All articles
21 pieces across six directions. Items tagged 中文 link to the Chinese original; the six pieces hosted here are available in English. Most external links go to Paragraph, where they first appeared.
AI 1
Getting the workflow down in writing matters far more than getting the prompt right.
Brand 1
Whoever writes the spec wins the tender. Whether you get a second order depends on service.
Cross-border 1
Count in cash, not in revenue.
Crypto 5
When the driving mechanism changes matters more than where the price is.
- 2025-03-27中文 Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle: What Actually Drives It The halving effect has weakened but not vanished: +31% from the 2024 halving to March 2025, against +285% and +560% previously. The driver became ETFs, corporate treasuries and leverage liquidations. Crypto
- 2025-10-09中文 Faded Glory and Dreams: Liquidity, Sentiment and the Cycle Starting from the 2008 crisis and the white paper published on 30 October that year, it walks back through 2017 ICOs, 2020 DeFi and NFTs to pull apart how liquidity and sentiment drive cycles. Crypto
- 2025-09-28EN Liquidity and Market Sentiment: Steering the Cycles Liquidity and sentiment are the two silent engineers of every cycle; this looks at how China's policy pivot spills outward, crypto included. Crypto
- 2025-09-23EN Heaven to the left, crypto world to the right Half angel, half devil: on one side, a Gen-Z trader copying CZ's social posts makes a million in a day and sends champagne money in red packets; on the other, a veteran blows up from eight figures of paper profit to nothing. Crypto
- 中文 Ten ways to actually make money in web3 Trading, market making, nodes, content, tooling — a pass over the monetisation paths that genuinely work in this industry. Crypto
Research 6
The undignified parts of diligence and valuation — the ones that actually work.
- 2026-09-20 Trading Comps: A Workflow You Can Actually Reproduce Pick peers, pull multiples, take the median, derive an implied range. Comps is easy to turn into theatre, so every step has to leave a trace. Valuation
- 2026-09-18 Macro 2026: The Four Variables I Watch Before Risk Assets No price targets, only drivers. Rates, credit, earnings expectations, liquidity — four variables decide whether a position attacks or defends. Macro
- EN The halo effect How one strong impression spills over into a judgement about everything. The expensive part isn't being wrong — it's being able to justify being wrong. Cognition
- 2025-08-10EN The world belongs to you… but ultimately it belongs to the producers Wittgenstein: the limits of my language are the limits of my world. Whoever first sorted cattle by coat colour took hold of the power to classify. Cognition
- 2025-03-19中文 Web3's biggest problem is the cost of trust. How do you fix it? From exchange proof-of-reserves and DEXs to on-chain reputation for KOLs — where trust friction comes from, end by end, and what actually reduces it. Research
- 2024-11-08中文 Why did Trump win, and what does it mean for markets — web3 especially? Combining the views of resident reporters, financial analysts and industry OGs: from the "economy card" to team stability, what drove the win and where it spills over. Macro
Essays 7
The fatigue and the absurdity of working life, plus a few days I didn't want to forget.
- 2026-09-12 From Lecturer to Founder: A Retro on Judgement A judgement made from a lectern costs nothing; the same judgement in a market charges tuition. Four roles taught me to attach a price to every call. Retro
- 2025-06-28EN Occupational Burnout Is "you end up hating whichever trade you're in" really unavoidable? First work out whether it's the industry or the role you hate — the fixes are completely different. Work
- 2025-06-22EN Over loading A friend's company implodes: shareholders at war, the second and third largest walking out with the team — right as GOOGLE- and APPLE-scale clients land, six months of losses and penalties ahead. I was recommended to take over at exactly that moment. Work
- 2025-06-21EN Two Habits Two habits that have paid off: let people finish speaking, and in a conflict, understand the real intent before you judge. Habits
- 2025-06-15EN In this noisy era, let us encourage each other Open any page and the noise hits you: local conflicts, nationalist feeling, celebrity scandals, politicians on trial. How to live with yourself in an age where nobody talks about ideals. Notes
- 2025-05-11中文 In this noisy era, let us encourage each other (Chinese version) The same title in Chinese: how to be a decent bystander when conviction has become a rare product and everyone asks "so where are you making your money?" Notes
- 2025-05-11中文 A surreal day Only one bar left in the district, and I sit down to find I've walked into a matchmaking event; later, a department store sews my zip for free and lends me an umbrella; then an Indian colleague calls asking me to come pick him up. Notes